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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: ROSE M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.43 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 14 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET FINISHED THE WEEK UP COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market finished the week up compared to last week. All the segments except for Cape index were up. Cape segment was ...
Friday, 12 June 15
EXPECTATIONS IN REGARDS TO THE SUMMER SEASON VARY ACROSS THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off last slightly up last week, with the BDI re-gaining the 600 points level, while the driving force behind the increas ...
Friday, 12 June 15
U.S. PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short ...
Thursday, 11 June 15
IS COAL INDUSTRY GOING TO HIT A BRICK WALL?
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.59 per MT fo ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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