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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 June 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO LAST WEEK; CONTINUES TO BE DOWN FROM LAST YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.4 million short ...
Friday, 19 June 15
INDONESIA'S COAL-TRAFFICKING PROBLEM REQUIRES IMPARTIAL INQUIRY - JAKARTA GLOBE
Indonesia, the leading supplier to the seaborne thermal coal market, produces 420 million tons of coal per year, according to its official tally.
...
Thursday, 18 June 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: LOWEST FLEET GROWTH IN 10 YEARS MAY NOT PROVE ENOUGH AS DEMAND IS NOT KEEPING PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The demand side of things in the dry bulk market seems unable to keep pace with even the slightest fleet growth, a sign of the demise that the indu ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
THE FAR EAST HANDYSIZE, HANDYMAX, SUPRAMAX MARKET REMAINED STEADY LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (last week) noting small gains on the back of stronger performance in the Panamax segment, w ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
MERCATOR'S KAMSARMAX FIXED WITH CLEARLAKE
COALspot.com: Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a leading Indian-owned international dry bulk shipping company focused on markets such as India, ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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