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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 26 June 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S ROSE 6.0% WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.3 million short ...
Thursday, 25 June 15
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.31% MORE COAL IN MAY 2015 COMPARED TO APRIL 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.18 billio ...
Thursday, 25 June 15
CAPESIZE: PERIOD INTEREST REMAINED STRONG FOR A SECOND WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Following those depressive last six months, the BDI closed off on last Friday noting a substantial weekly increase, which pushed the ...
Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all ...
Tuesday, 23 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALL $1.12 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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