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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 30 June 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 43.45 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decli ...
Monday, 29 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS UP SLIGHTLY MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.57 (1.11%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 29 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.49 per MT (1.08%) month over month to US$ 45.77 per mt. The swap was ...
Saturday, 27 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY EARLIER IN THE WEEK; SOFTEN INTO WEEK'S END
COALspot.com: The freight market remain steady earlier in the week, but towards end of the week BDI and BCI shows some signs of softening.
The ...
Friday, 26 June 15
INDONESIA COAL PRODUCTION FALLS BETWEEN JAN-MAY : JG
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that coal production declined to 166 million tons between January and May, a 19 percent drop ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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