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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 06 July 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER COMPANY LIMITED ISSUED A TENDER FOR 250K MT BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 250K Metric Tons (MT) of 5300 kcal/kg NAR coal ...
Monday, 06 July 15
COAL TRADING & RISK MANAGEMENT TRAINING COURSE
Are you ready to invest in yourself and take your trading and risk management strategy to the next level? The Coal Trading & Risk Management Tr ...
Monday, 06 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP; DECLINED D-O-D,W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.53 (1.01%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 05 July 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX WAS DOWN 18%; PANAMAX UP 9%
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft during this week. However indices closed slightly firmer end of the week on 3rd July.
The BDI was do ...
Friday, 03 July 15
U.S DELIVERS WEAK FIRST HALF COAL PRODUCTION; 8.8% LOWER Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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