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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 09 July 15
LACK OF FRESH BUSINESS IN THE PACIFIC LEFT CAPESIZE RATES MOVING SIDEWAYS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Intermodal ship broker says in its weekly report that, a different picture from what we saw the previous week was painted during the ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
RIO TINTO'S MODERNISED KITIMAT SMELTER BEGINS PRODUCTION; KITIMAT BECOMING ONE OF THE LOWEST COST SMELTERS IN THE WORLD
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto is preparing its first shipments of metal from its world-class Kitimat aluminium smelter in Canada following an extensive m ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
Q3'15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.14% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ADVANCED MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.28 per MT (-0.61%) month over month to US$ 45.85 per mt. The swap wa ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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