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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 July 15
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE EQUALS SEVEN-YEAR LOW - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry fell during the three months to May 2015 to a level equal to the lowest rating recorded in the p ...
Thursday, 02 July 15
TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION IN MINING 2015 - IXG
Information Exchange Group’s Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015- International Summit on Mining
Press Release: The inaugural editi ...
Thursday, 02 July 15
THE PERFORMANCE OF THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT PUSHED DRY BULK MARKET TO UPWARD LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market continued its upward movement last week, with the BDI closing off on Friday (26 June) in excess of 800 points, wh ...
Wednesday, 01 July 15
Q4'15 AND Q1'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and down week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ ...
Wednesday, 01 July 15
BEIJING HAS OFFICIALLY EXTENDED BY TWO YEARS ITS SUBSIDY PROGRAM TO SUPPORT LOCAL SHIPPING COMPANIES IN SCRAPPING THEIR OLD TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
Last week, Beijing has officially extended by two years its subsidy program to support local shipping companies in scrapping their old tonnage in w ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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