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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 15 July 15
ANY FUTURE IRAN OIL DEAL WILL BOOST SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS WITH TANKER OWNERS HOPING FROM TEHRAN TO QUICKLY BOOST ITS PRODUCTION
With the Greek “Euro-drama” apparently over, at least for now, Iran’s oil deal still remains elusive, with any potential agreemen ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS MAINTAIN OVERALL NEGATIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.02 per MT (-2.23%) month over month to US$ 44.68 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.47 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SOAR 23 PER CENT TO 24.08 MILLION TONNES AT 12 MAJOR INDIAN PORTS
Import of thermal coal jumped 23 per cent to 24.08 million tonnes at 12 major ports in the first quarter of the fiscal, even as the government cont ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED ON A POSITIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Despite Greece crisis and turmoil in the stock market across the world , the freight market overall was firm and up in all segments t ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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