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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 19 July 15
BDI GAINED AND CROSSED 1000 MARK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI gained and crossed 1000 mark after many months this Friday. The BDI was up almost 20 pct and closed 1048 points on 17 July 20 ...
Saturday, 18 July 15
INTERVIEW : FRANZ ESCALANTE, CHIEF OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS, MINERA CHINALCO, PERU
We are interested in the technology of Autonomous trucks, the new-generation trucks are not remote controlled, they are truly autonomous - Franz Es ...
Friday, 17 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. INCREASES SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 11
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.4 million short ...
Friday, 17 July 15
INDONESIAN POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 17 July 15
DO CANCELLATION RIGHTS UNDER VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY SURVIVE RE-NOMINATION OF LOAD PORT? - INCE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do cancellation rights under voyage charterparty survive re-nomination of load port?
St Shipping & Transport Inc ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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