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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 24 July 15
U.S PRODUCED 17.2 MMST OF COAL FOR THE WEEK ENDED JULY 18; FELL 11.5% YEAR ON YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.2 million shor ...
Friday, 24 July 15
THE IMPACT OF COLLAPSING CHINESE COAL IMPORTS - CLARKSONS
Global seaborne coal trade is currently projected to drop 1% y-o-y in 2015, which would be the first annual decline in almost three decades. The dr ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
ELEVEN NEW NICKEL SMELTERS ARE TO BE BUILT IN INDONESIA OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS AT A COST OF $1.4 BILLION
Indonesia’s Most Reputable Nickel Event
Eleven new nickel smelters are to be built in Indonesia over the next two years at a cost of $1. ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT KEPT FOUNDING SUPPORT ON INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINESE STEEL MILLS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (17July 2015) noting substantial gains and the BDI surpassing the 1,000 points level for the first time af ...
Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, w ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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