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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 July 15
INDONESIA DELAYS PLAN TO RAISE COAL ROYALTIES AMID PLUNGING PRICE - JP
The government will postpone a plan to increase royalty payments from coal miners as they are already burdened with the commodity’s plunging ...
Tuesday, 28 July 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP LOST M-M AND GAINED W-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.15 per MT (-2.51%) month over month to US$ 44.62 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 27 July 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 545,000 MT OF COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to purchase total 545,000 Metric Tons (MT) of coal ...
Monday, 27 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WEAK M/M; FIRM W/W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.92 (1.77%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 26 July 15
INDO-INDIA OCEAN COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued lost steam towards end of the week and all indices were showing downward trend.
The BDI was up by 3 ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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