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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 31 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP 3.6% FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 25
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CHINA'S NEW OIL IMPORT RULES HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON STATUS QUO - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that China's looser criteria for crude oil import rights are a positive but modest step towards encouraging private-sector p ...
Thursday, 30 July 15
EFFECTS OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET CRISIS - INTERMODAL
All evidence is currently signaling that the Chinese stock market will be the newest hurdle for the global economy. With the world's second lar ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and gains week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decl ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q4' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE 4.41% TO $56.52 PMT
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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