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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 August 15
COAL CONSUMPTION POSTED THE STRONGEST GROWTH AMONG THE FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES IN 2014 - VDKI
Coal 2014: again the world's fastest-growing primary energy source and an indispensable asset for the success of the energy turnaround.
Ac ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
FOB INDONESIA THERMAL COAL SWAPS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
DRY BULKER PRICES START TO FIRM UP AS MARKET SENTIMENT IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Market pessimism in the dry bulk industry, a trend which had established itself over the course of the year, has started to fade away over the past ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO FALL DUE TO SLIDING DEMAND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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