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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 11 August 15
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL REACHED A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 1,661M TONNES IN 2014 - VDKI
COALpot.com: Global production of crude steel reached a new all-time high of 1,661m tonnes in 2014, said German Coal Importer Association, in its l ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
2016 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 4Q 2015 CLOSING PRICES; BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 10 (0.20%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Monday, 10 August 15
SOUTH KOREAN UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 560,000 Metric Tons (MT) of 4,600kcal/kg NAR c ...
Sunday, 09 August 15
THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS REMAINED WEAK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be buoyant with cape index pushing the BDI.
The BDI was up 10.49% and closed at 1200 points on 7 ...
Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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