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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES KEPT RALLYING LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Strong Capesize performance kept supporting the Dry Bulk market last week, which noted another positive weekly closing, while rates f ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FALLING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET: WITHOUT A DOUBT REACHED HEALTHIER LEVEL
A few weeks before the end of the summer season, the BDI is hovering around 1,200 points, providing some much needed optimism to all Dry Bulk marke ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
REGULATION CURBS POWER OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN MINING SECTOR IN INDONESIA - FLORENCE G. SANTOSO
The Indonesian Government appears to be getting serious about stripping Regents of the authority to issue mining licenses. The Government took the ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 0.98 per MT (-2.20%) month over month to US$ 43.65 per mt. The swap ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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