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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 40 (1.05%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Sunday, 16 August 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI softened 12.08 per cent to 1055 points this week due to weakening of cape index which was fell 25 per cent week over week to ...
Friday, 14 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING NO MOVEMENT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 14 August 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.9 PER CENT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million shor ...
Friday, 14 August 15
CONDITIONS AND COMPLEXITIES IN A TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT: BE SPECIFIC! - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A tripartite agreement reached between the Owners, the Shippers and the Receivers provided that demurrage be paid to the ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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