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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 18 August 15
DRY BULK: MARKETS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SEVERELY CHALLENGED - CLARKSONS
The dry bulk markets have continued to be severely challenged with freight rates falling during the period to below operating expense. The Baltic D ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
1Q'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FALLS BELOW $54 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
2Q' 16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $43 PER MT W/E 14 AUGUST
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.08 per MT (-2.46%) month over month to US$ 42.82 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 17 August 15
TROUBLED DRY BULK MARKET FACES TURMOIL AS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS REMAIN WEAK - BIMCO
The demand for coal in China continues to diminish. So much in fact that India is expected to succeed China as the world’s largest imp ...
Monday, 17 August 15
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL REFERENCE PRICE HITS RECORD LOW AGAIN!
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.14 per MT fo ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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