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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 25 August 15
INDONESIA MINERS' NPLS TO RISE FURTHER, BANK RISKS BUILD - FITCH
The NPLs of Indonesian mine and mine services companies are likely to rise further in the short term, says Fitch Ratings, after reaching multi-year ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
MINER'S EARNINGS DROP ON FALLING COAL PRICES; Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.23 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 24 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HIT FRESH LOW, DIPPING BELOW $42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 2.20 per MT (-5.01%) month over month to US$ 41.70 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 24 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 48.65 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.89 (3.74%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 24 August 15
IS CHINA'S STEEL EXPORTS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FREIGHT MARKET? - BIMCO
No, it’s not enough, you will need lower Chinese iron ore production too in order to keep growing imports of iron ore into China that will su ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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