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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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