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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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