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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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