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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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