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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 September 15
GOVERNORS WILL HAVE THE POWER TO REVOKE MINERS' PERMITS: ENERGY MINISTRY - JG
Starting Oct. 1, Indonesia's governors will lawfully become "executors" in revoking the licenses of miners that fail to secure a &quo ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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