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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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