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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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