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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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