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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Having experienced, as it was much anticipated, a poor 1st half combined with negative forecasts, summer, in sharp contrast, proved to be more hope ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES LED A DECLINE IN INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com: Slower growth in world coal demand particularly China and lower international coal prices have led to a decline in Indonesian coal pr ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
HIGHER TAXES COULD LEAD GREEK SHIP OWNERS OUT OF THE COUNTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
A potential taxation overhaul of the shipping industry in Hellas, which could see the loss of particular tax benefits for ship owners, could lead t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE: ENTERING INTO A ROLE REVERSAL? - CLARKSONS
Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy t ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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