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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 21 September 15
KOMIPO OF KOREA INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
Sunday, 20 September 15
BALTIC CAPE INDEX ROSE 66.52 PER CENT AND STAND NOW AT 1995 POINTS
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose 17.35 per cent week over week to 960 points on Friday mainly driven by the Capesize segment. The Cape ...
Friday, 18 September 15
SHIPPING AND THE FED RATE DECISION: FINANCING COSTS COULD RISE EVEN HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Regardless of the FED’s decision to raise rates, shipping stands to be influenced by the decision. Shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted this w ...
Friday, 18 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 6.7 PER CENT W-W: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
COALSPOT HAS LAUNCHED NEW THERMAL COAL INDICES FOR INDONESIAN COAL
COALspot.com has today launched real-time CS (i) Coal Indices.
The Indices represents 3800 kcal/kg GAR, 4200 kcal/kg GAR, 5000 kcal/kg GAR a ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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