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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 September 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION APPLIES FINAL INCOME TAX TO MINERAL AND COAL SALES - FLORENCE GRACIA SANTOSO
To increase state revenue from the mining sector, the Government of Indonesia has imposed a new final income tax on any sale of mineral and coal, a ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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