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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 01 October 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO SEEKS SPOT BITUMINOUS COAL SUPPLIES
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 265,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS $1.25 A TON AS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 0.72 (-1.78%) per t ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
NEW BUILDING MARKET INSIGHT
COALspot.com: This year has been, beyond any doubt, a rather strenuous one for the newbuilding market. Ordering activity with regards to Dry Bulker ...
Tuesday, 29 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ARE SLIDING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 28 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS UP $2.15 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery increased $2.10 per ton (5.15%) month over month to US$ 42.93 per ton. The ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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