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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 05 October 15
Q1 & Q2 2016 DELIVERY SWAPS DECLINED M-M AND W-W THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.36 per ton (0.85%) month over month to US$ 42.12 per ton. The ...
Monday, 05 October 15
Q1' 16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 48.05 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down US$ 0.47 (0.96 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 05 October 15
SMALL DECLINE IN 2014 SHIP OPERATING COSTS - MOORE STEPHENS
Total annual operating costs in the shipping industry fell by an average of 0.8% in 2014. This compares with the 0.3% average fall in costs recorde ...
Sunday, 04 October 15
THE INDO-INDIA FREIGHT MARKET REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI closed on Friday (2 Oct 2015) at 889 points, down by 54 points compared to previous Friday's closing ( 24 Sept 2015) of 9 ...
Friday, 02 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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