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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
Monday, 12 October 15
BDI WEIGHED DOWN BY CAPE
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has come back down again this week. The BDI is a benchmark index used to assess the overall cost of moving ...
Sunday, 11 October 15
TANKER SHIPPING: MORE OPTIMISM IN SIGHT FOR TANKERS IN THE WINTER SEASON - BIMCO
Demand:
2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil pri ...
Friday, 09 October 15
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2 PERCENT TO 17.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 08 October 15
CAPESIZE: MOST PEOPLE AGREE A SPIKE IN RATES WILL HAPPEN; WHEN, HOW LONG AND HOW SUBSTANTIAL? - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Depressives start of the fourth quarter, with c3 approaching USD 12 pmt and c5 presently in the mind 5's. According to Fearnleys ship br ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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