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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
Friday, 16 October 15
MAJOR REVISION OF NYPE TIME CHAPTER PARTY - BIMCO
Major revision of NYPE time charter party promises to be both balanced and comprehensive
BIMCO has today jointly issued the first revision of ...
Friday, 16 October 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4'15 DELIVERY FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK; DOWN 5.5 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) ...
Friday, 16 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK; DOWN 11.3 PER CENT Y-Y, DOWN 3.5 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.1 million shor ...
Friday, 16 October 15
INDONESIA REJOINING OPEC DESPITE BEING A NET IMPORTER OF PETROLEUM - EIA
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) notified Indonesia that it plans to accept the country's request to reactivate its ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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