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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
RUSSIA'S CARBO ONE COAL SALES TO HIT 50 MLN T/YR - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Russia's Carbo One has become one of the world's leading physical coal traders with an annual volume approaching 50 million t ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctivel ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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