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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX; INDEX FELL 5.4 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly up by 2.65 pct closing at 774 points mainly because of Cape index which was up by 10.85 pct closing at 1461 poin ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING TO CHINA'S POLICIES FOR CUES ON FUTURE MARKET DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s hard or softer landing is a thing which has troubled dry bulk shipping for a couple of years now, as owners have been hit by the coun ...
Friday, 23 October 15
WILL INDIAN DOMESTIC COAL PRICES BE ABLE TO COMPETE IMPORTED COAL PRICES IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES?
COALspot.com: The Most of the Indian end-users are waiting for last minute purchase to enjoy every drop in price. Coal procurement managers are als ...
Friday, 23 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 17 DECLINED FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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