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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 31 October 15
ADARO ENERGY'S CORE EARNINGS DECLINE 21 PER CENT FOR THE NINE MONTHS PERIOD TO SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy's core earnings decline 21% to US$228 Million for first 9months of this year compared to the same period last year. ...
Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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