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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which ...
Monday, 02 November 15
DESPITE CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, ADARO LOWERS COSTS, DEBT AND DELIVERS STRONG FREE CASH FLOW
COALspot.com: Despite challenging market conditions, Adaro lowers costs, lowers debt and delivers strong free cash flow.
The Indonesia’s ...
Monday, 02 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED ON A WEAK NOTE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.81(3.71 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 01 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS WEAK
This week’s freight market sentiment remains weak compared to last week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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