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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 09 November 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SURGED 18%; COKING COAL 6.31% DURING APRIL-OCTOBER: BUSINESS-STANDARD
Indian thermal coal imports surged 18% at the country's top 12 major ports to 55.90 million tonnes (MT) in the first seven months of the curren ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEP DROPPING THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market keep dropping this week.
The BDI down 12.48 percent week on week and closed at 631 points on 6 November 2015. ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES IN AUSTRALIA-CHINA ROUTES OVER 50% CHEAPER THAN BRAZIL-CHINA ROUTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s mining and steel industries are facing tectonic shifts over the past couple of years, with the country’s limiting of coal use, ...
Friday, 06 November 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FELL SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 31
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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