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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 November 15
WEAK CHINA POWER DEMAND DAMPENS COAL CONSUMPTION - FITCH
The weak growth in China's electricity consumption in 2015, together with increasing non-thermal power generation capacity are exerting more pr ...
Friday, 13 November 15
DRY BULK, IT IS HARD TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The dry bulk owners looking for cover remained under pressure for size segments across the board. With Capes closing off the week as ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES TO 16.5 MMST; SLIDE 14.9% Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
FOREIGN COAL MINE ACQUISITION - STRATEGY VERSUS OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIAN UTILITIES - DIPESH DIPU
The acquisition market for thermal coal assets abroad is dull. Sellers of all hues are in the market; some are actively scouting for buyers while o ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP IN OCTOBER 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.254 billio ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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