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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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