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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of No ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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