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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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