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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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