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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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