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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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