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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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