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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
Monday, 30 November 15
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
ASSOCARBONI is in favour of an international mechanism to provide financial support to countries building high efficiency low emission coal plants. ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CS 5000 GAR COAL INDEX FIRM D-O-D; WEAK W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index up slightly day over day.
According to the system generated index, the CS 50 (5000 GAR coal) was ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (9.78%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 29 November 15
CAPE INDEX SURGES 383 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK, BOOSTS BALTIC DRY INDEX
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, fell to 498 points on 20 November and touched a 30-year low, but on 27 November th ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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