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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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