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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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