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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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