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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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