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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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