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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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